Thanks for the advice

Wang Huiyao
Founder
Centre for China and Globalisation
Beijing, China

Dear Huiyao,

I enjoyed your recent column in the SCMP. You're doing an impressive job of generating positive public relations for the CCP.

We had a fascinating chat on stage a few months ago on stage in Malaga, where you made the case to a room full of Western business executives that China just wants to get back to business as usual. And I can see why that makes great sense from your perspective: Low trade barriers, minimal export controls, and mining Western universities for technology have catapulted China from being an economic backwater into a first-class power. I can certainly understand why you would want more of the same.

I really appreciate your taking the time to give the American public your advice. It's great to hear that you care about the interests of the United States.

Sadly, I don't believe you. Nor do my fellow citizens.

We are not idiots. You do not have our best interests at heart. Nor should you. It's not your job. The CCP and the United States have divergent values and divergent interests. The CCP wants to exercise uncontested power in the world. And if you say the wrong thing, you're in grave danger of being thrown in prison or shot in the back of the head.

You write: "At the core of the US’ renewed turn towards unilateral trade measures is a fundamental misunderstanding of trade. The Trump administration remains fixated on bilateral goods trade deficits as a measure of national decline, but this ignores the basic structure of the US economy."

There's something deeply amusing about the spokesman for a communist regime giving us advice about flows of goods and capital. To be sure, communists - starting with Marx - have been astute observers of capitalism. The input is interesting. Your perspective is fascinating, especially when I account for the fact that you're trying to persuade us to do things that serve your interests.

From our perspective, the engagement with China has failed. Many here in the United States hoped that free trade would result in wealth for China, which would result in the emergence of liberal values and institutions. I, personally, thought that was moronic. But that was the real justification for the economic engagement and long-term peace with China. It didn't work. The CCP remains a totalitarian digital despotism. The Chinese people still have no civil rights, no property rights, and no freedom of speech. If anything, they have less than when this experiment started: They're wealthier than they were, but they're less free.

So, from our perspective, it's time to change our policy. In fact, it's long past time. As the world changes, policy needs to change. For decades, we gave China the status of an ally, hoping China would grow into it.

It didn't work.

We can't control what the CCP does, but we can and will control what we do. That's not coercion. That's just us making decisions about our own policies. That’s the prerogative of a sovereign state.

You're right about one thing: The current international system is not an accident. At the end of World War II, the United States had a chance to assert sovereignty over the entire industrialized world. We could have left Europe as a smoking ruin. Instead we rebuilt our former adversaries in Japan, Italy and Germany, and turned them into allies. At the end of the Cold War, when we had a near monopoly on military power, did we expand our territory? No. We attempted to act as global policemen, in the vain hope of spreading western, liberal values in places that didn't want them. It was a mistake, but a well-intentioned one.

Let's look at China's record in the 20'th century: The Great Leap Forward, which killed perhaps 50 million of your people. The conquest of Tibet, which killed a couple of million. The ongoing genocide of the Uyghurs. Reclaiming Hong Kong and eliminating civil rights and liberal institutions there, despite your treaty obligations. A long record of government-enforced abortion and infanticide caused by the one-child policy. Just how many children were killed and abortions were forced, we will probably never know.

As for peace and trade: The war in Ukraine is a proxy war between the United States and Europe on one side, and China on the other. China provides the Russians with the industrial capability that keeps them in this war. Peace is a great aspiration, but if you want peace, perhaps consider cutting the Russians off from access to China’s industrial capabilities for their war of aggression. But of course that won't happen, because having the attention of the US and Europe tied up in Ukraine pulls our resources and attention away from the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.

And China’s citizens, though they don't get to vote, are voting with their feet and their reproductive organs: Almost nobody is having children. That says something about their sense of hope for the future, despite the incredible success of the CCP's economic model over the past 30 years.

You write that "The US should choose to return to multilateralism. Mutual investment could serve as a starting point, similar to the Japanese investment in the US during the 1980s."

Thank you. But we don't want the CCP's money or influence here in the United States. Feel free to withdraw from working with us. We'll be fine without your help.

China and the United States are not going to link arms and lead the world as brothers.

"China is open to discussions on equal terms; cooperation cannot be coerced. The US must choose engagement over attempts to browbeat its partners and allies."

Again, thank you for your thoughtful advice. I'd be grateful if you would refrain from telling us what we 'must' do. That sounds awfully coercive to me. We will chart our own course, and do what we believe serves our interests. For now, we have the power to assert how and with whom we choose to engage in trade. The equal terms are: We will do what we think is best for us and for our allies. We know you will surely do the same.

We no longer trust any agreement that we sign with you: The CCP has violated and subverted every treaty, standards body, multinational organization and multilateral agreement it has touched.

My personal sense is that we should engage in free trade with our allies, who share our values and our interests. For adversary regimes, who are actively threatening our allies - in Taiwan, in the South China Sea, on the border with India, and in numerous other places in the world - I think we're better off avoiding trade wherever feasible. I suspect that you need the things we and our allies make - and perhaps more importantly our consumer demand - a lot more than we need what you make. Time will tell who's right.

Huiyao, you've made so many excellent suggestions, let me offer a suggestion in return:

Defect.

You're clearly very smart. You're eloquent. You're thoughtful. I enjoyed our discussion in Malaga: You persuaded some of the people in the audience, I hope that I persuaded others.

We love smart people here in the US. Wherever they're from. We don’t see them as a threat.

Certainly, the United States isn't perfect; we have our flaws and we make our mistakes. But we've never killed 50 million of our own citizens through bad policy. We've never built 200 million extra housing units through bad economic policy.

I've spent a lot of time in a lot of places around the world, and I think that the United States is great.

Bring your family and come join us. We have a history of treating defectors quite well. Come and live in a place where you and your children won't get shot in the back of the head for saying the wrong thing.

The CIA is recruiting defectors. You'd be perfect. You surely have access to secrets and useful information about China. You know the evils that the CCP has visited on their own people, again and again.

Come and work for the liberation of the Chinese people from the CCP. I bet you could make a real difference.

Best

Michael Hochberg